This is the Title page 1. The last chapter
Optimum
Population
Trust JOURNALS
Direct link to pages (in case you know which page to go to):
1[ ] 2[ ] 3[ ] 6[ ] 7[ ] 8[ ] 9[ ] 10[ ] 16[ ] 17[ ] 18[ ] 19[ ] 20[ ] 21[ ] 22[ ] 23[ ] 24[ ] 25[ ] 26[ ] 27[ ] 28[ ] 29[ ]
Last updated on 10 January 2007, the main changes made to this site were:
1. Additions to Chapter I:– All OPT Journals have been added up to the most recent one, namely Vol. 6, No 2, October 2006.
2. the index (which is available at the start of Chapter II) has been brought up to date. It now consists of 14 pages + the author index..
3. I add here, for the first time, something which visitors to a site are, I feel, entitled to know, namely how vast it is. It consists of 61 files using just under 5 MB of space. The index is necessary!
For more information about the site, its origins, design, purpose and background, see the foreword. The only advice I’ll put here is about the quirks of this site. While the division of this long page into Chapters has considerable advantages, the disadvantage is that if you follow a link by double clicking on it, hence opening the file in the same window, when you return you may well not return to your point of departure within this page. You can overcome this, if you wish, by opening a link in a new window. This of course only applies to external links, that is links to files outside this page. For ease of identification, such links are in bold (although the Contents page is an exception, bold print being mainly used although the links are internal to this page.
* * * End of Title page * * *
This is the Contents page 2. Title page
Chapter Pages
Title page (with its link to the main OPT site) 1
II. Index to OPT Journal, subjects, titles of papers, authors 8
III. OPT published papers on carrying capacity 9
IV. OPT published papers on energy 10
V. OPT draft papers on carrying capacity 11
VI. OPT draft papers on energy 12
VII. A study of the Living Planet Report 2002 13
IX. Contacts and about this site 21
X. Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) 22
* * * End of Contents * * *
Chapter I—OPT Journals 3. Title page
OPT Journals
Publications offered in this Chapter I for downloading
In this chapter, each ‘page’ covers one OPT Journal issue. And on each ‘page’ a link is offered to open in a new window (in Word 2000 code), the Introduction to that issue (a single printed page unless otherwise stated). The Introduction describes the essential themes of that particular issue. Next on this ‘page’ are the Contents of the issue. Next is a link which allows the whole journal to be downloaded (in Word code). Although diagrams are sometimes missing, often the Excel Figures are embedded objects, or icons which lead to files available for opening. Note that by right-clicking on all links, you get the option to open the file in a new window. That is the option to choose if you want to come back to the same place in this htm file.
Below are direct links to the places on this htm page where the above mentioned facilities for each individual issue of the OPT Journal are offered:
N.B. The following are only links to other ‘pages’ on this site, where downloads of the introduction page or the whole journal are offered.
Vol. 6, No 2 OPT Journal October 2006
Vol. 6, No 1 OPT Journal April 2006
Vol. 5, No 2 OPT Journal October 2005
Vol. 5, No 1 OPT Journal April 2005
Vol. 4, No 2 OPT Journal October 2004
Vol. 4, No 1 OPT Journal April 2004
Vol. 3, No 2 OPT Journal October 2003
Vol. 3, No 1 OPT Journal April 2003.
Vol. 2, No 2 OPT Journal October 2002. .
Vol. 2, No 1 OPT Journal April 2002
Vol. 1 OPT Newsletter September 2001 (an ‘unofficial’ Volume 1 of the OPT Journal
Chapter I—OPT Journals 4. Title page
OPT Journal October 2006, Vol. 6, No 2
CONTENTS
Page
2 Introduction (describing contents of this issue)
3 Clive Ponting’s A Green History of the World, Part 3. Martin Desvaux
14 Climate Change and Rising Sea Level — an Update, John Nunn
20 Planets for Ecological Footprints and Carbon Absorption, Andrew Ferguson
22 Planet Earth - Users and Losers, Sangeeta Sonak
25 Population Limits and Environmental Resources, David and Marcia Pimentel
27 The 20% “Uncontrollables” Limit, Andrew Ferguson
28 Lagoons of Silence within the Renewables Lobby, Andrew Ferguson
30 Why Population Concerns are not ‘Politically Correct’, Jim Duguid
31 Scientific and Journalistic Goofs II, Andrew Ferguson
Download the whole of this OPT Journal, 6-2 issue (32 pp., in Word for Windows code, 317 kb).
Chapter I—OPT Journals 5. Title page
OPT Journal April 2006, Vol. 6, No 1
CONTENTS
Page
2 Introduction (describing contents of this issue)
3 Clive Ponting’s A Green History of the World, Part 2. Martin Desvaux
13 Human Prospects over the Next 70 Years, Andrew Ferguson
16 Population Crises and Population Cycles, Claire and WMS Russell
18 A monograph on Hartmann’s The Last Hours of Ancient Sunlight, Andrew Ferguson
23 Other views on Hartmann, Lindsey Grant, Val Stevens, James Duguid
25 On Development, Demography and Climate Change, Tim Dyson
29 An Expanded Glossary of Wind Terms, Andrew Ferguson
31 Paths to Wisdom, Number 2, Val Stevens
Download the whole of this OPT Journal, 6-1 issue (32 pp., in Word for Windows code, 284 kb).
Chapter I—OPT Journals 6. Title page
OPT Journal October 2005, Vol. 5, No 2
CONTENTS
Page
2 Introduction (describing contents of this issue)
3 Clive Ponting’s A Green History of the World, Part 1. Martin Desvaux
8 A Plain Man’s Questions Concerning Wind Power, Edmund Davey and Andrew Ferguson.
13 A Plain Man’s Questions: Wind Power in Theory and Practice, Andrew Ferguson and ‘George’.
18 Why Wind Power Works for Denmark, Hugh Sharman
22 Wind in Wisconsin, Andrew Ferguson
24 Population, Migration, and Globalization, Herman Daly
25 The Hydrogen Economy:Reality or Fantasy, Andrew Ferguson
32 Paths to Wisdom, Number 1, Jay Hanson
Download the whole of this OPT Journal, 5-2 issue (32 pp., in Word for Windows code, 215 kb).
Chapter I—OPT Journals 7. Title page
OPT Journal April 2005, Vol. 5, No 1
CONTENTS
2 Introduction (describing contents of this issue)
3 The Solar Fraud: Why Solar Energy Won’t Run the World, Howard C. Hayden.
9 Energy at the Crossroads, Vaclav Smil
14 The Collapsing Bubble by Lindsey Grant
15 God Bless America, Edmund Davey
18 The Depth of Delusion, Andrew Ferguson
21 Web of Deceit, Mark Curtis
23 The Roots of Delusion: a Quest, Andrew Ferguson
26 Assessing the Millennium Assessment, Andrew Ferguson
29 The Way: An Ecological World-View, John Gray and Edward Goldsmith
30 Scientific and Journalistic Goofs, Albert A. Bartlett.
Download the whole of this OPT Journal, 5-1 issue (32 pp., in Word for Windows code, 218 kb).
Chapter I—OPT Journals 8. Title page
OPT Journal October 2004, Vol. 4, No 2
CONTENTS
Page
2 Introduction (describing contents of this issue)
3 Climate Change and Sea Level in Relation to Population, John Nunn.
9 Hydrogen as an Energy Carrier, Andrew Ferguson
15 Vexponential Growth in the 21st Century, Andrew Ferguson
18 Comparing WROG Periods, Andrew Ferguson
21 Population Growth in The United
States and Canada:
A Role For Scientists, Peter Salonius
22 Capacity Factors — a simple analogy, Andrew Ferguson
23 The Relative Cost of PV and Wind Power, Andrew Ferguson
28 A Rule of Thumb for PV Annual Capacity Factors, Andrew Ferguson
32 Strangely Like War: The Global
Assault on Forests, Derrick Jensen
and George Draffan
Download the whole of this OPT Journal, 4-2 issue (32 pp., in Word for Windows code, 335 kb).
Chapter I—OPT Journals 9. Title page
OPT Journal April 2004, Vol. 4, No 1
CONTENTS
Page
2 Introduction (describing contents of this issue)
3 A Green History of The World by Clive Ponting, and The Rapid Growth of Human Populations 1750-2000 by William Stanton; a review by Roger Martin
6 The Rapid Growth of Human Populations 1750-2000 by William Stanton — the publisher’s introduction
8 World History: a New Perspective by Clive Ponting; a review by Andrew Ferguson
13 The March of Folly: from Troy to Vietnam, Barbara Tuchman
14 Limits to Wind Power, James Duguid, John Dyson, and Andrew Ferguson
18 The Meaning and Implications of Capacity Factors, Andrew Ferguson
26 Hydrogen and Intermittent Energy Sources, Andrew Ferguson
30 Hydrogen Fantasies, Andrew Ferguson
Download the whole of this OPT Journal, 4-1 issue (32 pp., in Word for Windows code, 168 kb).
Chapter I—OPT Journals 10. Title page
OPT Journal October 2003, Vol. 3, No 2
CONTENTS
Page
2 Introduction (describing contents of this issue)
3 2nd Footprint forum, Part II: Ethics
of Carrying Capacity,
introduced by Andrew Ferguson
6 Contribution to the 2nd Footprint forum, Part II, from Colin Campbell
7 Contribution to the 2nd Footprint forum, Part II, from Jill Curnow
8 A few words on William Stanton’s The Rapid Growth of Human Populations 1750-2000: Histories, Consequences, Issues, Nation by Nation
9 Contribution to the 2nd Footprint forum, Part II, from James Duguid
10 Contribution to the 2nd Footprint
forum, Part II, from John Guillebaud,
Co-Chair of OPT
11 Contribution to the 2nd Footprint forum, Part II, from David and Marcia Pimentel of Cornell University.
13 Contribution to the 2nd Footprint forum, Part II, from J. Kenneth Smail of Kenyon College, Gambier, Ohio.
14 Contribution to the 2nd Footprint forum, Part II, from William Stanton, of OPT.
15 An Overview of the 2nd Footprint forum, Part II, Andrew Ferguson
18 A Plain Man’s Questions Concerning
Time-independent Renewable Energy
Back-up, Edmund Davey and Andrew Ferguson
21 Verdict on the Hydrogen Experiment: an Update, Andrew Ferguson
28 The Crucial Limit: 11 cubic km of Carbon per Decade, Andrew Ferguson
32 Keeping an Eye on the Broadsheets, collected by James Duguid
Download the whole of this OPT Journal, 3-2 issue (32 pp., in Word for Windows code, 220 kb).
Chapter I—OPT Journals 11. Title page
OPT Journal April 2003, Vol. 3, No 1
CONTENTS
Page
2 Introduction (describing contents of this issue)
3 Wind/biomass Energy Capture: an Update, Andrew Ferguson
11 Implications of the USDA 2002 Update on Ethanol from Corn, Andrew Ferguson
16 A
Plain Man’s Questions Concerning Liquid Sunshine,
Edmund Davey and Andrew Ferguson
18 Global warming: extracts from an interview with John Houghton
19 Declining populations: extracts from Anthony Browne
20 Yes Johannesburg was a WSII, Andrew Ferguson
21 China’s success cancelled out by the USA, Andrew Ferguson
23 The Social And Ecological Consequences Of Globalization, Andrew Ferguson
26 A Plain Man’s Questions Concerning Eco-footprinting, Edmund Davey and Andrew Ferguson
30 Bjorn Lomborg, Spin Doctor Extraordinaire, Jill Curnow of Sustainable Population Australia
Download the whole of this OPT Journal, 3-1 issue (32 pp., in Word for Windows code, 163 kb).
Note that this issue includes Table 1 and Table 2, which show the “Monthly, and hence yearly, capacity factors from Wind Stats Newsletter” for Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, and Sweden.” Table 1 covers the period Oct-98 to Sep 99, and Table 2 the period Oct-99 to Sept 2000. The Excel file offered for download covers both these tables.
Chapter I (cont)—OPT Journal 12. Title page
OPT Journal October 2002, Vol. 2, No 2
CONTENTS
Page
2 Introduction (describing contents of this issue).
3 2nd Footprint forum, Part I, introduced by Andrew Ferguson
6 Contribution
to the 2nd Footprint forum, Part I, from Jill Curnow of
Sustainable Population Australia Inc.
7 Contribution
to the 2nd Footprint forum, Part I, from David Pimentel of
Cornell University
8 2nd Footprint forum, Part I — the concluding Implications, Andrew Ferguson
23 A Plain Man’s Questions Concerning PV, Part I, Edmund Davey and Ferguson
31 The Cost of ‘Stand Alone’ PV Electricity, Andrew Ferguson
33 A Plain Man’s Questions Concerning PV, Part II, Edmund Davey and Ferguson
38 Wind/biomass Energy Capture, Andrew Ferguson
Download the whole of this OPT Journal 2-2 issue (40 pages, in Word for Windows code, 260 kb).
Page 29 of this issue displays part of an Excel file, referring to the year 1997, based on an, “Analysis of PV data from Toledo, Spain, taken from:
http://www.toledopv.com/ingles/masesp.htm (on 25/04/2000)”.
Page 30 uses the same template for the spreadsheet, but covers the year 1998. Both spreadsheets are incorporated into the above OPT Journal file, hence its large size. The crucial factors to emerge from these spreadsheets is that, although in all cases the PV cell efficiencies are 17%, the capacity factor (proportion of rated power delivered to the grid) was 14%, and the ratio of “energy delivered to the grid, to the insolation on a horizontal flat surface of the same area” is about 9% (10% using the more tightly packed BP modules).
Chapter I (cont)—OPT Journals 13. Title page
OPT Journal April 2002, Vol. 2, No 1
CONTENTS
Page
2 Introduction (describing contents of this issue).
3 OPT news from Chairman Edmund Davey
5 OPT Position Statement, 2002 (resulting from 2001 questionnaire)
7 The Petro-population Parallel, Gard Binney
9 Verdict on the hydrogen experiment, Andrew Ferguson10 Convention to combat desertification — brief notes.
11 Monograph on Brown’s Eco-economy, Andrew Ferguson
14 Earth Day, as seen by the Earth, Donella Meadows, and Global Forest Prospects in a World of Six Billion, Annie Faulkner
15 Thoughts on Why Canada Needs a Population Policy, Cassils and Weld
18 Monograph on the Carrying Capacity Implications of Plimer’s “A Short History Of Planet Earth” Andrew Ferguson.
23 A question of survival, extracts from an article by Edward Goldsmith
24 Ice Age, Glacial and Interglacial, Andrew Ferguson
27 The Population Implications of Houghton’s “Global Warming: the Complete Briefing,” Andrew Ferguson
31 OPT and the media
Download the whole of this OPT Journal 2-1 issue (32 pages, Word for Windows code, 168 kb).
Chapter I (cont)—OPT Journals 14. Title page
OPT Newsletter September 2001, Vol. 1
The first issue of the ‘OPT Journal’ was actually a newsletter of eight pages. It only nominally counts as Vol. 1, No 1; the convenience of this is that it allows Vol. 2 to start in a year which matches the digit, 2002. There is another difference: Vol. 1, No 1, the newsletter, came out in September, while April and October are the normal months of publication of the OPT Journal. What follows is the essence of the Introduction to the 8 page newsletter, explaining its rushed production:
We have decided to aim to produce an OPT newsletter in October and April, so as to slot in with the production of The Pherologist newsletter. There are many members of OPT who also take the EPOC newsletter. Occasionally there will be duplication of material, depending on how important it is. The reason for this newsletter being early is that we thought John Barker’s precipitate action in circulating his own ideas about an ‘OPT Position Statement’ might lead to some confusion, which should be laid at rest without delay. Edmund Davey explains the circumstances.
CONTENTS
Page
1 Introduction
2 OPT news from Acting Chairman, Edmund Davey
3 Energy Use And Australia’s Carrying Capacity by Jill Curnow
5 Perceiving the Population Bomb by Andrew Ferguson
7 USA Population Growth projected to 2100
8 US Immigration’s Estimated Impact on Population Growth 1990-2000
Download the whole of this OPT Newsletter, Vol. 1, issue (10 pp.in this electronic version, Word code, 57 kb)
* * * End of Chapter I OPT Journals * * *
Chapter II—Index to OPT Journals 15. Title page
Chapter II
Index to OPT Journals
(includes subjects, titles and authors of papers in OPTJs, and titles of other papers.)
The index to the subjects, titles and authors of papers in the OPT Journals is available at optind.doc, Word file (164 kb, 19 printed pages). The file contains two indexes: the first is arranged by subject, and the second arranged by author, with the titles of papers shown alphabetically under each name. {2/optind.doc}
Chapter III—OPT published papers 16. Title page
Chapter III
OPT
published papers on
carrying capacity
The papers listed here do not include those which have already appeared in the OPT Journal, as those papers are made available in Chapter I.
The Assumptions Underlying Eco-footprinting (52 kb, 9 pages), by Andrew Ferguson. This first appeared in Population and Environment, in 2002 (Vol 23, No 3, pp. 303-313). Its main function is to explain the effects of yield factors and demonstrate why the eco-footprinting methodology of dealing in worldwide productivity does not introduce significant distortions.
The Essence of Ecological Footprints and The Logical Foundations of Ecological Footprints, (14 pages, 84 kb) by Andrew Ferguson. Here two intimately related papers are put into one file. ‘The Essence …’ was published — in a somewhat curtailed form — as a letter in Ecological Economics (Vol. 31—318-319). It arose in response to a long article about eco-footprinting by Jeroen van den Bergh and Harmen Verbruggen which had appeared in an earlier issue of Ecological Economics. The ‘Logical Foundations…’ paper was an attempt to expand what I had lacked space to say in ‘The Essence…’. ‘Logical Foundations…’ first appeared in 1999, in the journal Environment, Development and Sustainability Vol. 2, pp. 149-156. Its essential point is that ‘biocapacity’ is at least as important as the Footprint size; moreover biocapacity is less prone to error in measurement.
World Carrying Capacity: an interim report (12 pages, 60 kb, offering within it a 55 kb Excel table), by Andrew Ferguson. This was first published for limited circulation in October 1998. The history of its development provides an insight into the use of eco-footprinting for determining carrying capacities, so I have written an introduction (26 kb) to provide a full background.
* * * End of OPT published papers on carrying capacity * * *
Chapter IV OPT published papers on energy 17. Title page
Chapter IV
OPT published papers on energy
The papers listed here do not include those which have already appeared in the OPT Journal, as those are made available in Chapter I.
Intractable Limits to a Sustainable Human Population (31 July 2004, 9 pages, 82 kb) by Andrew Ferguson.